A position is not a position until it can survive a question. Six questions, specifically. If any one is hand-waved, the name is a speculation wearing the costume of a thesis.
The six
1. What is the marginal buyer paying for at this price? Stated as a multiple on a specific year's number. 'It's cheap' is not an answer. '52x UBS FY28' is.
2. What is the bear-desk number, and why is it wrong? Goldman, Bernstein, Citi — name the specific assumption we disagree with.
3. What is our number, and why is it inside the bracket? Our EPS or FCF or segment estimate, written down. If we cannot name it, we have not done the work.
4. What changes the thesis? Falsifiable triggers. Not 'if fundamentals deteriorate.' Something specific enough that a colleague could check it.
5. What is the catalyst path? Dated. Analyst day, Q3 print, product refresh. Without a catalyst, even a correct thesis can take five years to express.
6. What is the skew, sized? 1:5, 1:3, 1:1 against current price, mapped to position size. Conviction without sizing is gossip.
Why six and not three
Three questions let a sloppy analyst pass. Twelve questions become bureaucracy. Six is the smallest number that forces all of what we own, why we own it, what would change our mind, when we find out, and how much we have on the line.
The bar exists because the most expensive mistakes we have ever made were positions that felt defended but actually answered only three of the six. The other three were what eventually killed them.